Knife. Falls. Don’t catch.

Yesterday made ugly reading around the world’s market.

Are we out of it? Look at this chart . I am no chartist, so take these as words for an amateur. But looking at the length and depth of the 2000-2004 bear market, we can get a sense for how long the cycle lasted last time. Even after a hideous day like yesterday, the main market indicators are still not bottoming out. There might be bouts of optimism but there is more volatility (which means sharp drops) ahead.

The Vix–which will typically spike at 30+ during the peak of a down turn was yesterday sitting at 26. It has further to go and stocks further to fall.
Much smarter people that me suggest that there is a good chance for another serious downleg. See Bespoke, Worldbeta, although Traders Narrative is marginally more bullish.

Cash is definitely the place to stay unless you can stomach (and invest) the time in daily trading. If only holding cash wasn’t so boring. (But more interesting than losing money hand over fist.)


One Trackback

  1. By Blood on the tracks « azeem.azhar on September 15, 2008 at 11:02 pm

    […] on from last week’s suggestion that we weren’t near the bottom, the market has well a truly spoken: ‘We […]

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