I want my iPhone

Reading SeekingAlpha, my new favourite site, I note that Apple’s iPhone is getting closer to reality. SeekingAlpha quotes an AppleInsider report quoting a Commercial Times report quoting an insider at FoxConn, trading name for Hon Hai Precision Industry, an OEM, that Apple has asked for an initial build order of 12m units–for the first half of next year.
Things I love about this story:

  • the iPhone is close, so close. What if it isn’t called the iPhone?
  • Apple is building 12m for six months so say 25m for a year or about 3% market share in year one.
  • that at Hon Hai Precision industry, ‘knife goes in, guts come out’
  • that I can’t found Commercial Times, the original news source, and had to settle for digitimes.com

Best of all for those who  kindalife Apple’s products is that Bear Stearns reckons the iPhone will add $6bn to Apple’s revenues next year and 22% to earnings.

It isn’t just about Apple’s products being insanely great again.

It’s also about the triumph of style over the mundane. About having the confidence in your insight, customers and brand to enter a market which is crowded, consolidating and commodifying; a market where leaders are losing margin and investments are turning sour in a hurry; a market where incumbents have huge advantages, like big brands, great distribution and cushy relationships with channel.

It turns ordinary management thinking upside down. And I hope it’ll turn our assumptions about what a phone should be inside out too.



  1. Posted November 24, 2006 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    From a traditional strategic analysis, Apple has no business entering the mobile phone market for all the reasons you cite. It would take insanely good execution – a product which radically alters the value curve of what a mobile phone is – for apple to succeed.

    My friend Brett Foraker, Creative Director of Channel 4, has an interesting take on this type of brauva. In response to my asking him how he interfaced with the strategic types at the channel, answered casually: “Execution sets Strategy. If you come up with a creative idea so strong that everyone wants to go with it, then that determines the strategy”.

    Not bad if you can manage it. Repeatedly. Which Brett, infruriatingly, does, and of late, Apple has…

  2. Posted November 24, 2006 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    He’s right in a funny sort of way. Isn’t traditional strategy planning just about risk limitation? (Or a way of handling agency problems?)

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